EDPR - Renewable shake down

Today's research note about the Portuguese company EDP Renováveis. Goldman Sachs in a latest research note cuts the price target for the company from a period of three years starting at 2016 (2016-2018). The business paper Jornal de Negócios had access to the American Investment Bank research note, which I reproduce here a translated version with a link to the original Portuguese site.

'' "Our estimates of earnings per share for 2016-2018 were cut by 16%, 15% and 14%," says the analyst Manuel Losa in the analysis note.

"Our target price is based on a combination of 50:50 assessing the sum of its parts, from 4.90 euros, and assessing multiple of EV / EBITDA [enterprise value to EBITDA ratio] of 5.40 euros" , the note explains. The evaluation of the sum of the parts "includes € 1.7 billion of sales to a premium of 30% over the review"  of the investment house, which is "in line with the history of EDP Renewables".

The investment house said that, on the side of "positive" risks are higher than sales to an assessment by the Goldman Sachs bonus. Have the opposite side is the "new government intervention", as well as sales at lower than the rated value.

The shares of the company led by Manso Neto following losing 0.50% to 5.333 euro ''

http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/mercados/bolsa/research/detalhe/goldman_corta_avaliacao_da_edp_renovaveis_para_510_euros.html 

Collective Pensions.

In the advanced Investment world there isn't an issue with cutting pensions when costs are high, and the sharing of risks between generations is properly handled.

The Breakout Trader: a post on AUDNZD

I will post today a translated version of an entry in the Portuguese Blog The Breakout Trader by trader Nuno Mello. If you want to check the original please follow the link bellow the text.

 ''During the night , the RBA decided to keep the interest rate unchanged
at 2.50% and maintain its neutral position, supported by the fact that
the inflation projection for the next two years , remain stable at 2-3 %.
 Data about current account, higher than expected (Acts AUD -5.7 bn vs Exp CHF -7 million) also helped boost the AUD.

 I follow with particular interest , the pair AUDUSD but once lateralizes
within a descending channel ( lying at this point exactly halfway
between the lower and upper limit ), I decided to look for other pairs
with AUD. The AUDNZD pair was the pair chosen for my analysis today.
 Now everyone knows my pessimistic view regarding NZD. Technically AUDNZD is a very interesting situation, having activated a head-and- shoulders reversed last Thursday.
 This pattern took nearly six months to form and its theoretical target is quite ambitious : 380 pips. In
my opinion the AUDNZD has the potential to go test at least the level
of 61.8 % fibo of descent moves that began in late October last year and
finished in January this year'' 

The Breakout Trader: AUDNZD....

The Breakout Trader: Irá a C.G.D. ......

Today's the Blog (Portuguese) The Breakout Trader on an interesting story about the company Inapa Investimentos e Participações SA and the possibility of nationalisation or forced acquisition by the State Bank Caixa Geral de Depósitos following the threshold set by its participation in Inapa rights issue. The Portuguese Markets regulator CMVM is looking at the issue, and in case Caixa Geral de Depósitos is forced into the deal, it would be cumbersome for the Bank and its commitment with the Troika after the Memorandum of Understanding stated that it should be selling everything in its books not related with its core business. Interesting to follow in the coming weeks or so.

The Breakout Trader: Irá a C.G.D. ser obrigada a lançar uma OPA sobre a...: A Inapa é a empresa líder no sector da distribuição de papel em Portugal e também uma das acções em destaque, no dia de hoje, na bolsa naci...

First case and Coppola Comment...

I re-post here today a first, in what I hope will be many more to come,
an entry in the excellent Blog of Frances Coppola named Coppola Comment.

Today's post is about the recent developments with Deutsche Bank, the
giant German financial institution, which is a systemic one, critically
important to the European and Global Financial Markets landscape and
that promises to transform and significantly influence the future of
the Banking sector and the broader Financial Markets.

It is worth to follow Mrs. Coppola advice and read her piece in Forbes
Magazine on-line, that is available in the post by a link.



Coppola Comment: Deutsche Bank's latest capital raising won't end i...: My latest post at Forbes looks at the troubled Deutsche Bank and its latest attempt to improve its capital ratio: Deutsche Bank has final...

Brighttalk: Multi-factor Investing

Today I've had the luck and privilege to assist to a nice webcast from Brightalk called MSCI Multi-Factor Investing. Brightalk is a very nice web casts platform that I recommend.

This is the link to the site but everyone new to Brightalk will have to register a login and password to get access to the content.

https://www.brighttalk.com/webcast/2163/108475

I hope that there will be an interested and gracious audience. Thank you in advance.

Blog Golden Broker: Benchmarks and the Investment Process

The brilliant entry below is from the Portuguese Blog: Golden Broker, from a most honourable connection (...very personally speaking...)  Alexandre Mota. It is an appropriate reminder of the pitfalls for Investors and Asset Managers of relying to much on a Benchmark when making decisions about investment and asset allocation.


Alexandre tells us that Benchmarks may on many occasions blur the reality behind the Investment process, and the tendency of professionals in these sectors to follow the herd, so to speak. Even if there are uses for Benchmarks, certainly there is, specially on informative grounds, in the end it is always the hard work of seeing through the veil that will make the distinction and good performance when investing.


Blog Golden Broker: Qual o objetivo do seu investimento?: A maioria dos investidores responde a esta pergunta referindo que visa o crescimento ou preservação do seu capital, ou assegurar um rend...