Tuesday, 16 September 2014

João Monteiro & Markets: another shared take on the Markets

 João Monteiro & Markets: another shared take on the Markets:

'' Markets right across Asia have been
in for a stormy session today with all the major regional indices finishing up
in negative territory. The big driver here is the growing concern over the
state of the Chinese economy – overnight we saw numbers highlighting the fact
that foreign direct investment into China fell way short of expectations, reaching
a four year low. This is just the latest in a volley of data points that are
giving investors cause for concern across the globe. A sharp decline in Tokyo
Condo sales also knocked the Nikkei despite that perpetually weak Yen and the
big question now is whether this will mark the start of a bigger consolidation
phase.Wall Street is currently eyeing some
modest losses at the open following that strong finish yesterday. US economic
data disappointed too but the expectation is this may help defer any rushed
rate hike from the Fed. This is all building up to the FOMC verdict tomorrow
night and as was noted yesterday although there’s no real expectation of action
here, it’s the tone of the rhetoric that will count. With US inflation data due
ahead of that FOMC statement too, there’s still scope for market opinion to
shift but various dollar baskets do appear to be struggling to make further
progress for now. Ahead of the open we’re calling the DOW down 26 at 17005 and
the S&P unchanged at 1984. ''

João Monteiro & Markets: That´s what I´m talking about! ;): Markets | 16/09/2014 | Stormy session across Asia ...: Markets right across Asia have been in for a stormy session today with all the major regional indices finishing up in negative territo...

Friday, 12 September 2014

Schiff On The Markets - a rediscover!

I was really impressed with Peter Shiff's life and biography. And I googled his name and came about a blog where he occasionally writes about the Markets. Fascinating personality.

''Federal Reserve: What The Next Move Will Be

Interest rates have been too low for too long, that is a big problem.
But unfortunately they are not going to be raised anytime soon and
ultimately when interest rates do go up, its not because the Federal
Reserve wants them to go up, but because they have no choice. But I
think the next thing the Fed is going to do is to launch an even bigger
round of QE then the one they are tapering off from. Because the U.S.
Economy is not recovering, we are slipping back into recession. If the
Fed does not know that, it will by the end of the year and it will have
to reverse policy.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares
Silver ETF (SLV), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Select Sector
Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
Index ETF (EEM)

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and
financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of
Euro Pacific Capital Inc.''

Schiff On The Markets: Federal Reserve: What The Next Move Will Be: Interest rates have been too low for too long, that is a big problem. But unfortunately they are not going to be raised anytime soon and ult...

Wednesday, 10 September 2014

Creating a Virtual Family Office

''Creating a Virtual Family Office:
Are you looking to create a family office but want it to be lean, agile,
and able to change shapes every 3-5 years based on market conditions
and investment focus changes? The virtual family office trend is
growing, and as the family office industry matures around the world and
gets some real momentum in BRIC countries we will see this phrase and
family office structure used more and more often.''

Tuesday, 9 September 2014

Scottish Independence and GBPUSD rate

I post here an entry in FT's Alphaville by Izabella Kaminska on the thoughts running through the analysts and Financial Journalists these days, concerning the impact the referendum on Scottish Independence might have on the Forex Market, and specifically on the GBPUSD exchange rate. The post is interesting also from an ethical perspective, about the issues that may arise when journalistic stories and headlines can precipitate a run on a Bank or trigger further panic and irrationality in the Markets. Interesting read:

Cataclysm Hyperbole

''So could all the cataclysm be based on off-the-cuff remarks by Rochester to AEP directly? Possibly, but those familiar with his style said that such language would be completely out of character. And there is still no direct Nomura-related attribution to the word cataclysmic.
What’s stranger still… Nomura’s house view on GBPUSD (as of Sept 8.) doesn’t even marry up with the story’s 15 per cent projected “plunge”. From the real Nomura:
Historically, the 1.58-1.62 range has offered a key support or resistance level to break (see Figure 1 below) and we may expect these support levels to hold if GBPUSD moves even lower just before the referendum. If the „YES‟ vote does win the referendum on 18 September, GBPUSD could gap considerably lower (we think a 5-10% sell-off could be possible) and implied vols could be much higher. A “NO‟ vote could mean GBPUSD appreciating back to 1.66-1.68 levels.
A zero-cost break-out ladder in such a scenario could be profitable, as it would gain if spot gaps downwards with a large move, but would not lose anything if spot moves higher in the event the “NO‟ vote wins a majority.
Given that the probability of an exit is still considered less than 50% by most analysts in spite of this recent poll, (see for instance How to trade the Scottish Referendum for a detailed pre-You-Gov poll analysis including timelines), we do not think it makes sense to pay a large premium for this possibility.
To translate…
Nomura thinks the value of the pound could plunge by 5-10 per cent in the event of a ‘Yes’ vote. Furthermore, whilst you could buy an options strategy to profit from such a move in a relatively hedged way, the cost of the options strategy is probably not worth your while since the chances of an actual exit are still less than 50 per cent.
Go figure.''

João Monteiro & Markets:

A recent and very interesting person in the Markets that I made contact with.With this Blog about what is happening in the Financial Markets. I recommend.

''It’s been a relatively quiet session for Asian equity markets with traders struggling to find much meaningful direction. After yesterday’s market holiday in Shanghai, the Hong Kong exchange has been closed today, leaving many traders playing something of a waiting game ahead of fresh data out of Beijing. We’re going to see new Yuan loan numbers out tonight followed by CPI readings later in the week and with concern building that signs of a slowdown may be imminent, anything that serves to exacerbate these fears could result in a bout of selling. The Nikkei is edging higher once again but much of this appears to be driven by ongoing dollar strength – USD/JPY came close to 106.40 overnight.  
Major indices on Wall Street are currently forecast to start the day little changed and again there’s not much in the way of fresh economic data that has the potential to deliver any meaningful direction here. The geopolitical situation seems eerily calm and the point many seem to be focusing on is the launch of the latest iPhone, so ahead of the open we’re calling the DOW down 4 at 17107 and the S&P down 1 at 2001. ''

João Monteiro & Markets: That´s what I´m talking about! ;): Markets | 09/09/2014 | Relatively quiet session fo...: It’s been a relatively quiet session for Asian equity markets with traders struggling to find much meaningful direction. After yesterd...

Thursday, 4 September 2014

A comment on ECB's ABS move

Hello again! Today a link to the brilliant economics commentator and Blogger extraordinaire Frances Coppola. A comment on today's move by the ECB to kick start in October a programme of Asset-backed securities purchase, which the Central Bank hopes will be decisive for resuming robust Growth in the Eurozone. Coppola's comment is sceptical. Is she right.....?:

'' So as far as I can see, the SME ABS programme is either going to be too
small to make much difference, or is likely to encounter serious
problems with loan quality at some point, putting the ECB's balance
sheet at risk. I'm particularly worried by the way in which SME ABS
purchases by the ECB is being promoted in some quarters as the primary
means of "fixing" the periphery (though Draghi himself does not make
this mistake). If only we can get credit flowing to periphery SMEs, the
thinking goes, all our troubles will be over. This is simply not true.
SME ABS purchases cannot substitute for flawed institutions and
inadequate fiscal and monetary support. And even more importantly, they
cannot compensate for a lack of creditworthy borrowers.''

Coppola Comment: Don't pin all your hopes on SME asset-backed secur...: Here's a neat chart from JP Morgan (h/t @debtnerd) (larger version here ) What it says, essentially, is that although the total...