João Monteiro & Markets: another shared take on the Markets

 João Monteiro & Markets: another shared take on the Markets:

'' Markets right across Asia have been
in for a stormy session today with all the major regional indices finishing up
in negative territory. The big driver here is the growing concern over the
state of the Chinese economy – overnight we saw numbers highlighting the fact
that foreign direct investment into China fell way short of expectations, reaching
a four year low. This is just the latest in a volley of data points that are
giving investors cause for concern across the globe. A sharp decline in Tokyo
Condo sales also knocked the Nikkei despite that perpetually weak Yen and the
big question now is whether this will mark the start of a bigger consolidation
phase.Wall Street is currently eyeing some
modest losses at the open following that strong finish yesterday. US economic
data disappointed too but the expectation is this may help defer any rushed
rate hike from the Fed. This is all building up to the FOMC verdict tomorrow
night and as was noted yesterday although there’s no real expectation of action
here, it’s the tone of the rhetoric that will count. With US inflation data due
ahead of that FOMC statement too, there’s still scope for market opinion to
shift but various dollar baskets do appear to be struggling to make further
progress for now. Ahead of the open we’re calling the DOW down 26 at 17005 and
the S&P unchanged at 1984. ''


João Monteiro & Markets: That´s what I´m talking about! ;): Markets | 16/09/2014 | Stormy session across Asia ...: Markets right across Asia have been in for a stormy session today with all the major regional indices finishing up in negative territo...

Schiff On The Markets - a rediscover!

I was really impressed with Peter Shiff's life and biography. And I googled his name and came about a blog where he occasionally writes about the Markets. Fascinating personality.



''Federal Reserve: What The Next Move Will Be

Interest rates have been too low for too long, that is a big problem.
But unfortunately they are not going to be raised anytime soon and
ultimately when interest rates do go up, its not because the Federal
Reserve wants them to go up, but because they have no choice. But I
think the next thing the Fed is going to do is to launch an even bigger
round of QE then the one they are tapering off from. Because the U.S.
Economy is not recovering, we are slipping back into recession. If the
Fed does not know that, it will by the end of the year and it will have
to reverse policy.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares
Silver ETF (SLV), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Select Sector
Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
Index ETF (EEM)


Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and
financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of
Euro Pacific Capital Inc.''


Schiff On The Markets: Federal Reserve: What The Next Move Will Be: Interest rates have been too low for too long, that is a big problem. But unfortunately they are not going to be raised anytime soon and ult...

Scottish Independence and GBPUSD rate

I post here an entry in FT's Alphaville by Izabella Kaminska on the thoughts running through the analysts and Financial Journalists these days, concerning the impact the referendum on Scottish Independence might have on the Forex Market, and specifically on the GBPUSD exchange rate. The post is interesting also from an ethical perspective, about the issues that may arise when journalistic stories and headlines can precipitate a run on a Bank or trigger further panic and irrationality in the Markets. Interesting read:

Cataclysm Hyperbole

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/09/09/1963701/cataclysmic-hyperbole/
''So could all the cataclysm be based on off-the-cuff remarks by Rochester to AEP directly? Possibly, but those familiar with his style said that such language would be completely out of character. And there is still no direct Nomura-related attribution to the word cataclysmic.
What’s stranger still… Nomura’s house view on GBPUSD (as of Sept 8.) doesn’t even marry up with the story’s 15 per cent projected “plunge”. From the real Nomura:

Historically, the 1.58-1.62 range has offered a key support or resistance level to break (see Figure 1 below) and we may expect these support levels to hold if GBPUSD moves even lower just before the referendum. If the „YES‟ vote does win the referendum on 18 September, GBPUSD could gap considerably lower (we think a 5-10% sell-off could be possible) and implied vols could be much higher. A “NO‟ vote could mean GBPUSD appreciating back to 1.66-1.68 levels.
A zero-cost break-out ladder in such a scenario could be profitable, as it would gain if spot gaps downwards with a large move, but would not lose anything if spot moves higher in the event the “NO‟ vote wins a majority.
Given that the probability of an exit is still considered less than 50% by most analysts in spite of this recent poll, (see for instance How to trade the Scottish Referendum for a detailed pre-You-Gov poll analysis including timelines), we do not think it makes sense to pay a large premium for this possibility.

To translate…
Nomura thinks the value of the pound could plunge by 5-10 per cent in the event of a ‘Yes’ vote. Furthermore, whilst you could buy an options strategy to profit from such a move in a relatively hedged way, the cost of the options strategy is probably not worth your while since the chances of an actual exit are still less than 50 per cent.
Go figure.''

João Monteiro & Markets:

A recent and very interesting person in the Markets that I made contact with.With this Blog about what is happening in the Financial Markets. I recommend.

''It’s been a relatively quiet session for Asian equity markets with traders struggling to find much meaningful direction. After yesterday’s market holiday in Shanghai, the Hong Kong exchange has been closed today, leaving many traders playing something of a waiting game ahead of fresh data out of Beijing. We’re going to see new Yuan loan numbers out tonight followed by CPI readings later in the week and with concern building that signs of a slowdown may be imminent, anything that serves to exacerbate these fears could result in a bout of selling. The Nikkei is edging higher once again but much of this appears to be driven by ongoing dollar strength – USD/JPY came close to 106.40 overnight.  

Major indices on Wall Street are currently forecast to start the day little changed and again there’s not much in the way of fresh economic data that has the potential to deliver any meaningful direction here. The geopolitical situation seems eerily calm and the point many seem to be focusing on is the launch of the latest iPhone, so ahead of the open we’re calling the DOW down 4 at 17107 and the S&P down 1 at 2001. ''

João Monteiro & Markets: That´s what I´m talking about! ;): Markets | 09/09/2014 | Relatively quiet session fo...: It’s been a relatively quiet session for Asian equity markets with traders struggling to find much meaningful direction. After yesterd...

Dave Giles' Blog: The Stock Market Crash...

Hi everyone and good to be back on my Investment Case. This post concerns the repost of one of the best blogs on Blogger on economic and Investment issues. I am talking about Dave Giles Econometrics Beat which I occasionally already repost. This time it is inevitable given the quality and importance of the link below that I think will be informative and to the benefit of anyone with an interest in Econometrics or Economic issues and specially keen on knowing all there is to know about the problems related with Stock Markets Crashes and subsequent Financial and Economic Crisis! Definitely a good read.

Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog: The Stock Market Crash - VECM's & Structural Break...: A few weeks ago, Roger Farmer kindly drew my attention to a recent paper of his - "The Stock Market Crash Really Did Cause the Great R...

Buchanan on Econophysics again

From time to time I will Reblogg posts from Mark Buchanan's The Physics of Finance:
The Physics of Finance: The Wall Street Journal weighs in on "econophysics...: Michael Casey has written a nice short essay in the Wall Street Journal on the topic of econophysics, and more generally the physics-inspir...

US dollar bull run

Big Data and stupidity may sometimes be positively correlated. But, and as long the analysis is good and robust enough, the data is certainly the best guide to decision-making in economic and markets settings. Following last week sell-off of the US Dollar it shouldn't be a surprise the bull run of this week, if only investors properly look at the recent economic data, and realize that everything is in favor of the Dollar appreciation. David Bloom, the global head of Forex Research at HSBC, rightly tell us in the presented conversation with  Authers Note of the FT that the Dollar story is the main driver of the Markets in pretty much any asset class, facts to be considered when allocating Capital for the near future.

Volatility profits...?

The Financial Markets are a very dangerous place to invest! We all already knew that. But it is certainly where money and profits are made. And that can be possible with taking the opportunity of gains in its inherent turbulence. The recent events in the US Federal Reserve or the Markets' movements due to Political or institutional developments are good examples where the so called Volatility Traders will be busy and attentive. As FT's Ralph Atkins documents in the video with this post:

The Politics of Global Markets

Nice to watch this weekly resume from Royal London Asset Management's director and Head of Fixed Income Jonathan Platt. I think I am safe to say we had an eventful week on many fronts of the Global Markets, specially in some Eurozone countries as well as in Egypt. In matters concerned to the Eurozone it is interesting to note the relatively noncompetitive Italian Labor Markets largely compensated by the good National Saving rates of this Eurozone Country in contrast to others....Looking elsewhere it is also interesting not to notice a mention to the East Asian Markets, perhaps understandably as it is indeed mentioned the good economic performance of the US economy in comparison to other Advanced Economies. And the tapering will eventually occur, and the markets aren't ready!  And finally Emerging Markets (like Brazil or Turkey) are really under-performing and seeing a capital flight and growing inequality that alerts us for Political Risks and its consequences.  

 

Europe's woes still around

As the short video below sketches Europe's economic prospects are still shadowed by very dark clouds indeed. It is specially remarkable the comparison with the American's economic situation and the narrow or in-existent real value of investing in European Companies that at a first look might seem to be under-priced or in need a market correction. And the Markets are unforgiving to Political turmoil as the recent activity over the Portuguese Crisis well illustrate.

Deutsche Borse Group

This is a presentation. I hope that (unlike myself) anyone watching will perfectly understand the German Language without reserves or difficulties. It is kind of inspirational for me to try and definitely learn this important European idiom.

Europe's Clearing Business

The video that I here post is almost 1 year old, but it still remains a present issue. The FT reporter is interviewing Diana Chan, chief executive of EuroCCP, a UK major player in the Exchange business of clearing and settlement of derivatives and trading of securities. This business is going through major changes and deep regulatory overhaul following the events of the Financial Crisis and even beyond. We all hope that implementation of these changes and of EMIR will continue to maintain and enhance the viability and profitability of this important business that guarantees market efficiency. And certainly that further opportunities will be around the corner...!

...So Investing isn't so simple....these days!

Despite the Crisis recent data appears to reveal that net wealth in USA's households is rather a lot volatile, and it didn't quite follow the deep dips experience of other major crashes. And that is what  Larry Kantor, head of research at Barclays presents in the video below to FT's John Authers. We can also check that the job of investing these days is a choppy and difficult business, specially if we account for the uncertainties of today's markets and economies. What is interesting in this and contradicting a bit the former video of Authers and Gavyn Davies about the timing of FED tapering, is the idea that we maybe are in for a sooner tapering of Quantitative Easing from the FED and on the other hand we are maybe about to see a breaking point in the correlation verified for the past couple of years between the Bond Markets and the Global Equities Markets in the months ahead....! Quite something!

And this week China is out of Liquid.....

And following the tone of the last post, we continue the story of the Global Markets for this week and the video below is a FT Emerging China correspondent talk with Wendy Liu of Nomura. They talk about the volatility in the Shanghai Composite index that might have been triggered by China's Central Bank (it seems that all Central Banks are really nervous for the major protagonist roles on the Markets....) hard line. It seems that the hasrd line of the Chinese Central Bank is causing credit glitches...and looking to hard landings...But it might not in the end!

After Last Week Sell-off

Interesting in this FT Markets clip to take stock of how markets reacted to last week Federal Reserve's move, or as we might more appropriately call it intrinsically volatile signalling. There was a wild sell-off in equities globally,and what is particularly striking is Barclay's Chief Equities Strategist Barry Knapp's account of the correlation in the Markets between the behavior of Stock prices and Bond prices. And we prepare ourselves for what lies ahead for this week in the Markets.....or for what is left of this week in the Global stage!

The turning taper won't be soon....

 The communicative acumen John Authers and the dearth of Macroeconomic Knowledge of Gavyn Davies united here in this FT video. I must confess to a bit of personal emotion about  pieces like this, thinking of my long months of reading, watching and on-line indulgence with the Financial Times. Hope for a next time certainly: 

Melting-up for optimism.....?

A short look at the recent 5% jitter in the Global Equity Markets that can make for a solid, and sustained rally in the months to come, even if we are heading for Summer break:

After-the-melt-up

European Union and Finance - City of London or otherwise...?

The European Union and Serious Finance.....?! Hopes should be for the best outcome possible! This video for a touch on the subject: 

EU & City of London

Fearful Markets.......

The problem of fear and expectations for Financial Markets....
Fearful Markets